不同类型压力对飞行员安全绩效的影响规律研究

为探究各类型压力对飞行员安全绩效的影响规律，为飞行员日常工作管理提供依据，选取某航空公司200名飞行员进行压力测试，并调取其近6 a的飞机品质(QAR)数据，通过相关性分析和线性回归分析将飞行员压力数据与其QAR数据进行对比分析，探究飞行员压力对飞行安全绩效的影响规律。研究结果表明:工作负荷压力、家庭压力、人际关系压力和组织管理压力会显著负向影响飞行员安全绩效；角色压力和专业发展压力会显著正向影响飞行员安全绩效。     

A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

基于EFDC的长江常州段污水排江浓度场数值模拟

长江感潮河段水流与污染排放引起的浓度场复杂多变,基于EFDC(Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code)模型,采用正交曲线网格拟合自然河道边界,建立了长江常州段的水动力和水质模型。采用现场同步实测资料,与计算结果比对,证明该模型在水动力和水质两个方面都与实测数据吻合较好,满足了实际工程的需要;同时由于长江水流运动较快,一阶降解动力学已经满足了化学需氧量(COD)、氨氮(NH3-N)和总磷(TP)浓度计算要求,可以不考虑它们复杂的生化反应过程。     

洪泽湖水体富营养化时空分布特征与影响因素分析

通过2014年—2017年对洪泽湖12个水质断面定期调查,采用营养状态指数(TLI)综合评价其水体富营养状态,同时应用主成分分析方法(PCA)分析其富营养化状态的时空变化特征。结果表明,洪泽湖70%以上的调查断面水质全年处于轻度富营养化状态,夏季是其富营养化最严重的季节;洪泽湖年内水体水质差异较大,而其水华特征并未呈现明显差异;洪泽湖富营养化很大程度上受制于营养盐的积累程度,并与湖泊透明度呈现极显著的负相关关系(p0.001),与湖水pH值呈现极显著的正相关关系。     

山西省绿色转型发展现状评价及路径研究

从经济、社会、资源、环境保护4个层面构建了切合山西省实际情况的绿色转型发展指标体系,采用熵权法及聚类分析方法对山西省的绿色转型发展现状进行了评价,根据评价结果,结合政策背景,提出了山西省实现绿色转型发展的路径,以实现山西省均衡快速的绿色转型发展。     

Ti3C2纳米层状材料对废水中Cr（Ⅵ）的光催化去除性能

以Ti₃AlC₂为原料,采用HF刻蚀工艺制备出12种Ti₃C₂纳米层状材料,对其形貌进行了表征,并考察了以其作为光催化剂对废水中Cr（Ⅵ）的处理效果。实验结果表明：HF体积分数为80%、刻蚀时间为48 h时得到的MX-80-48的形貌较好;MX-80-48具有类似石墨烯的二维层状结构,纳米层厚度约20~50 nm,孔径2~10 nm,比表面积14.8 m²/g,在400~700 nm可见光范围内表现出强烈的吸光性;当Cr（Ⅵ）的初始质量浓度为40.00 mg/L、MX-80-48投加量为200 mg/L、pH=2、反应时间4 h（暗反应1 h+光照3 h）时,Cr（Ⅵ）去除率可达100%。     

分层开采工艺对地表沉降的影响研究

分层开采是厚煤开采的经典工艺,这种工艺对地表沉降的影响比较复杂。通过测试原岩物理力学参数,利用有限元软件flac3D对分层和一次采全高时地表沉降进行了数值模拟。结果表明,如果采高较小,砌体梁距煤层较近,且采完上分层后长时间停采,给顶板再生留足时间,分层开采较一次采全高对地表沉降影响要小。     

A proactive process risk assessment approach based on job hazard analysis and resilient engineering

Complex systems often experience a long period of incubation before accidents occur. Therefore, a proactive risk assessment is essential for process safety. The conventional job hazard analysis (JHA) method has been an effective tool to conduct a process risk assessment in the high-risk industrial field. However, the conventional JHA is inadequate for the proactive risk assessment since it is usually conducted during and before one specific operation process. Operations such as startup and maintenance are performed repeatedly on the lifecycle of a plant. Therefore, the risk reduction measures for the industrial process should include not only preventive actions obtained from the conventional JHA but also recovery ones. Resilience engineering (RE) has proven to be helpful for the recovery analysis of a complex system. The objective of this paper is to propose a proactive and comprehensive process risk assessment approach based on JHA and RE. The mechanism of applying RE to address operation process risk is illustrated. The integrated approach can provide guidelines to establish proactive risk reduction measures as well as maintain a low-risk level. Finally, a gas transmission startup process risk assessment case is presented to demonstrate its applicability.     

Difference in the net value of ecological services between natural and artificial forests in China

Land degradation is a global problem that seriously threatens human society. However, in China and elsewhere, ecological restoration still largely relies on a traditional approach that focuses only on ecological factors and ignores socioeconomic factors. To improve the effectiveness of ecological restoration and maximize its economic and ecological benefits, a more efficient approach is needed that provides support for policy development and land management and thereby promotes environmental conservation. We devised a framework for assessing the value of ecosystem services that remain after subtracting costs, such as the opportunity costs, costs of forest protection, and costs for the people who are affected by the program; that is, the net value of ecosystem services (NVES). To understand the difference between the value of a resource and the net value of the ecosystem service it provides, we used data on VES, timber sales, and afforestation costs from China's massive national afforestation programs to calculate the net value of forest ecosystem services in China. Accounting for the abovementioned costs revealed an NVES of ¥6.1 × 10¹² for forests in 2014, which was 35.9% less than the value calculated without accounting for costs. As a result, the NVES associated with afforestation was 55.9% less than the NVES of natural forests. In some regions, NVES was negative because of the huge costs of human-made plantations, high evapotranspiration rates (thus, high water opportunity costs), and low forest survival rates. To maximize the ecological benefits of conservation, it is necessary to account for as many costs as possible so that management decisions can be based on NVES, thereby helping managers choose projects that maximize both economic and ecological benefits.     

矿热炉炉壳安装作业危险性分析

为减少事故损失,必须对矿热炉安装施工危险源进行分析。基于此,对矿热炉安装工序中最重要工序炉壳安装应用作业危险性分析进行分析。将炉壳安装作业分成3大部分,用鱼刺图分析方法进行分析,总结出矿热炉炉壳安装中事故发生的主要原因并提出对策措施,以预防和减少事故的发生。